This is a scenario which could happen:

1. 12 Convalescence beds installed at Llys Y Bryn -

this has happened

(12 Residential beds disappear)

2. 7 Respite beds installed in St Paul's - this has

happened

(7 Residential beds disappear)

3. Annedd Care Home to Close - this will happen

(19 Residential beds disappear)

4. Glanmarlais Care Home to Close - this will happen

(30 Residential beds disappear)

(Most vacant Residential beds available now lost)

5. Council passes Consultation document

6. Argel Care Home Closes

(30 Residential beds disappear)

Hospital places start to be bed blocked

7. St Paul's Care Home Closes

(13 Residential beds disappear and a further 7 are replaced by Respite beds

in Y Plas - 20 Residential Beds lost in total)

More Hospital places required to Residents as no vacancies now left)

8. Catref Tawelen Closes

(30 Residential beds disappear)

Extra Wards now required in Hospital to take Residents

9. Caemaen Care Home Closes

(30 Residential beds disappear)

Crisis point now reached as no beds available anywhere.

10. Y Bwythyn designated as EMI Home and 28 Residential beds disappear.

11. Increased need for Residential beds due to population increase in elderly

12. Health service has major problems due to lack of beds - Hospital Services

effected and Local Health support becomes over stretched to breaking point.